OPINION- The NRM, despite its national dominance, has struggled to fully penetrate Rukungiri Municipality due to Dr Besigye’s legacy. The NRM, led by Museveni, has long sought to wrest control of Rukungiri from the opposition.
Dr Besigye’s absence might embolden the NRM to intensify its efforts in the municipality, leveraging state resources and security apparatus to sway voters or suppress opposition activities. In the 2021 elections, the NRM made inroads, with candidates like Dr. Elisa Rutahigwa winning the Rukungiri Municipality MP seat, partly due to vote splitting caused by FDC members running as independents. A figure like Kabano Apollo Kyabarongo could either align with this NRM push or resist it, depending on his political affiliation.
Since Besigye’s latest incarceration, the political scene in Rukungiri Municipality has likely been affected, given his status as a local icon and a symbol of resistance against the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM). With Besigye being sidelined, local leaders in Rukungiri Municipality may gain prominence
The absence of such a towering figure could create both challenges and opportunities for other political actors in the area, including individuals like Kabano Apollo Kyabarongo and other new aspirants in the race.
Kabano Apollo Kyabarongo positions himself within this context as an NRM candidate and supporter seeking to exploit the opposition’s weakened state.
Rukungiri’s political dynamics 2026-2031 aligns with the idea that the region’s politics hinge on more than just strategy, they are deeply personal and historical.
New Aspirants entered Rukungiri’s political race with flawed assumptions the likes of a bush war hero, turned critic, one time Presidential Candidate Lt Henry Tumukunde’s miscalculation was about bush war pedigree but his failure to see that Dr Besigye’s influence is less about electoral mechanics and more about a legacy of resistance, amplified by his current plight rooted in history, identity and resistance..
Similarly, the hypothetical Andrew Kikira a nephew to Dr Besigye aligning with NRM party that Dr. KB has opposed for over two decades would be seen as a betrayal by many locals and backfire since Besigye’s imprisonment has turned loyalty into a litmus test. A relative, misjudged the backlash of aligning with the NRM while Dr KB suffers in prison, underestimating the personal loyalty that defines Rukungiri’s politics.
Dr Kizza Besigye’s hold is not just political, it’s almost mythic, rooted in shared struggle and defiance. For the next wave of contenders, this suggests a tough road ahead, there is need to either tap into that same vein of history and resistance or find a way to reframe the narrative entirely.
I speculate that anyone stepping into the ring, whether a seasoned and power hungry Lt Gen Tumukunde or a newcomer will face a steep uphill battle unless they can wrestle with the ghost of Dr Kizza Besigye’s influence.
I see Rukungiri Municipality as a place where loyalty and history do not just matter, they dominate.
As an aspiring MP maybe am right to say that Lt Gen Tumukunde’s odds are slim because his bush war cred does not translate into the kind of personal, resistance-fueled bond Dr Besigye has cultivated. The pivot to critic might earn him some intellectual points, but it does not hit the gut-level allegiance that keeps Besigye’s base solid, especially with him suffering in prison.
Rukungiri Municipality’s voters are not just picking a candidate they are picking a side in a decades long saga. Misjudge that, and you are toast.
But as long as Dr. Kizza Besigye’s fate remains uncertain and a rallying cry that’s tough to silence, the fate keeps Rukungiri’s political fires burning. Kabano Apollo Kyabarongo warn’s NRM that most challengers are just shouting into the wind. while he’s imprisoned, makes it a steep climb for anyone trying to flip the municipality race.
The recent attacks on Hon. Dr. Elisa Rutahigwa where mourners in February 2025 rejected his claims about Besigye’s health and nearly turned violent signal that even NRM incumbents face a hostile crowd. It’s a clear sign that Hon Rutahigwa’s traction is shaky at best.
NRM might be wasting their energy propping up someone like Rutahigwa this time around. Those attacks are not just a one-off they are a symptom of a deeper loyalty to Dr KB that the NRM has not cracked. Hon Rutahigwa’s own words got drowned out by boos and shouts he could not even finish his speech. That’s not the mark of a guy who is bringing the District back into the NRM fold. If anything, it’s a red flag that the party’s old tactics, leaning on established names or cash handouts are not cutting it against Dr Besigye’s enduring pull.
The NRM might be better off rethinking their strategy entirely, maybe sidelining Dr Rutahigwa and betting on a fresh face who can dodge the Besigye backlash and actually connect with the new generation that we have been championing. But as long as Dr Besigye’s shadow looms, most of their efforts might just be noise lost in the storm.
Hon. Elisa Rutahigwa’s backstory as an FDC defector who crossed over to the NRM already put him on thin ice with Besigye’s loyalists. That February 2025 incident where mourners attacked him over his Besigye health claims shows how deep that resentment runs. He’s not just a candidate, he is a traitor in their eyes, and that’s a wound that does not heal fast in a place where loyalty is everything.
Then there’s his tie to the Security Minister Hon. Jim Muhwezi Katugugu, a big NRM name but not exactly a beloved figure in Rukungiri. Being seen as “Muhwezi’s boy” doubles down on the perception. The NRM is banking on him to flip the script, but he’s more likely to flip off the voters.
Some aspirants misread the room, what they thought was a show of strength looks more like a personal feud to voters who see Dr Kizza Besigye as more than a politician, he is a symbol and symbols do not lose to swagger.
To pull off an upset in Rukungiri Municipality against Dr Kizza Besigye’s entrenched legacy, the NRM would need a radical rethink.
First, the NRM’s reliance on figures and friends of bush war credentials that never translated into local goodwill, is a losing bet
The NRM should bench these old guards whose presence stirs up more division than progress. Their track record in the region, as you point out, has not exactly been a golden era of development or unity. Why keep running the same playbook that failed to crack Besigye’s hold?
Then the newcomer’s eager maybe ambitious, but clueless about the terrain. Letting them charge into Dr Besigye’s stronghold without a coherent strategy is like sending lambs to slaughter. The NRM should sit them down, drill into them that Rukungiri is not just a constituency, it’s a loyalty test and force them to build a case that’s less about competing with Dr Besigye and more about transcending him.
We call upon NRM national leadership to Clear the deck retire the old bush comrades whose baggage weigh them down, and coach the newbies to focus on what Besigye’s camp has not delivered for Rukungiri. Not just promises, but visible projects Roads, Hospitals, jobs that hit people where they live.
Pair that with a narrative shift stop attacks on Dr Kizza Besigye that backfires, but paint him as a hero whose time has passed, and frame the NRM as the practical next step. It’s a long shot his imprisonment keeps him a martyr.
Come 2026 elections and having waited 40 years marks a generational shift in Rukungiri municipality politics there’s a hunger for new blood to drive growth and development, not just recycle the same old faces who have been in the system. The idea that veterans or NRM aligned newcomers are being “imposed” on the Municipality, especially when they can lean on cash to buy votes rather than vision to win hearts, feels like a betrayal of what Rukungiri Municipality needs. It is frustrating to see leadership reduced to a transaction instead of a calling. Money cannot outshout history.
It’s not just about replacing Dr. Besigye’s dominance with another strongman, it’s about redefining what Rukungiri’s future could look like.
We call upon NRM leadership and Rukungiri Municipality to back Kabano Apollo Kyabarongo, who can rally the youth, speak to the parents’ hopes, and deliver a plan, schools, markets, jobs, that hits the ground running.
Besigye’s imprisonment since November 2024 has not diminished his hold over Rukungiri if anything, it has strengthened it. His arrest in Kenya and subsequent detention have sparked outrage, with local leaders and residents demanding his release. Besigye’s imprisonment has sparked outrage among his supporters, both in Rukungiri and nationally. Protests and calls for his release could energize opposition politics in the municipality.
In Conclusion Rukungiri Municipality stands at a crossroads as 2026 approaches. Dr. Kizza Besigye’s legacy forged in struggle, cemented by imprisonment remains the heartbeat of its politics, a force that neither NRM incumbents nor ambitious newcomers can easily displace. The challenge is steep but not impossible. The NRM’s bold play to outshine Besigye with development and unity has stumbled. NRM has a chance to redefine the race not as a duel with Dr Besigye’s ghost, but as a promise of what Rukungiri could become.
To succeed the NRM must break from the past. Bench old comrades whose baggage drags them down. Train the next wave to fight on substance like corruption, infrasture service delivery, schools, daily markets, jobs rather than slogans or handouts. Shift the story honor Dr Besigye’s fight as a chapter closed, not a battle ongoing, and position the NRM as the practical next step. It’s a long shot while Dr Besigye’s fate stokes the fires of resistance, but 40 years of NRM rule marks a generational pivot. Rukungiri craves new blood, not just new promises.
Until then, Col Dr Besigye’s echo will keep the NRM and its aspirants running uphill, chasing a municipality where history still votes louder than hope.
